
A | PEARL HARBOR, Hawaii -- The military next week plans to begin draining fuel from World War II-era underground fuel tanks in Hawaii, nearly two years after the massive facility sickened 6,000 people when it leaked jet fuel into a Pearl Harbor drinking water well.Removing the fuel is a key step toward shutting down the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility as demanded by the state of Hawaii. The November 2021 spill poisoned the Navy's water system serving 93,000 people in and around Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam. The leak continues to threaten an aquifer used by Honolulu's municipal water utility to serve 400,000 people on Oahu.“I want the community to know that my team and I understand the enormity and the significance of this mission,” Vice Admiral John Wade, the commander of Joint Task Force-Red Hill, said at a news conference.Work to drain the 104 million gallons (394 million liters) remaining in the tanks was scheduled to begin on Monday. Each tank is 250 feet (76 meters) tall and 100 feet (30 meters) wide. Gravity will feed fuel into fuel lines connected to the lower part of the tanks. The fuel will then flow downhill through pipelines for 3 miles (4.8 kilometers) to a tanker ship waiting at Pearl Harbor pier. It will take more than two days to fill each tanker. Wade said it would take three months to remove 99.9% of the fuel. Then, work will begin to remove a residual amount of an estimated 60,000 to 70,000 gallons that will have accumulated in low-point drains and bends. That work is expected to be finished in the spring. The moment is bittersweet for Lacey Quintero, whose Navy family was among the thousands who suffered health problems after drinking contaminated water in 2021. She's happy the fuel is being removed but the operation has stirred memories as the two-year anniversary of the spill approaches. “The timing of it, coupled with the dangers that are present during defueling — there’s fear,” she said. She's concerned that more fuel could spill into the Navy's drinking water well and poison the aquifer. She's also worried about possible explosions. Quintero and her husband, who is in the Navy, and their two children moved to Hawaii in November 2021 from California. They fell sick soon after moving. Her youngest, who was then 3 years old, vomited uncontrollably. The entire family complained of diarrhea and itchy skin. Quintero's arms and legs went numb and she struggled with chronic fatigue. Her husband is still stationed in Hawaii but they have moved to private housing off base which uses Honolulu municipal water. Yet she still suffers from stomach pains, migraines and skin issues. She has PTSD.“I have flashbacks of feeding my daughter this poison soup and watching her vomit it up,” she said.Quintero is one of 6,750 claimants seeking compensation from the U.S. government for what they experienced. Their attorney, Kristina Baehr, said claims for the first group of six plaintiffs were due to go trial in March. The state of Hawaii ordered the military to drain the tanks after the 2021 spill, saying they posed an imminent threat to the aquifer underneath. The Department of Defense challenged that order in court, but eventually acquiesced. It's spent the past year repairing the tanks and pipes so the fuel can be safely removed without additional leaks. For years the military said the tanks were vital to national security and resisted calls to close the facility or to move it. Military officials repeatedly reassured the public that Oahu's water was safe — even though the tanks had a history of leaks.The spill upset a broad cross-spectrum of Hawaii, and precipitated a crisis for the military in the islands. Many Native Hawaiians have been angered given the centrality of water in Hawaii’s Indigenous traditions.A Navy investigation pinned the cause of the spill on a series of mistakes. First, operator error caused a pipe to rupture on May 6, 2021, when fuel was being transferred between tanks. This caused 21,000 gallons (80,000 liters) of fuel to spill. Most of it flowed into a fire suppression line and sat there for six months, causing the line to sag.Then on Nov. 20, a cart rammed into the sagging line, releasing 20,000 gallons (75,700 liters.) A team thought they recovered all of this fuel, but they missed about 5,000 gallons (19,000 liters) which flowed into a French drain and from there into the drinking water well.The Navy reprimanded three now-retired military officers for their roles in the spill but didn't fire nor suspend anybody.。 1月17日,国家统计局发布了2024年中国宏观经济数据,大家最为关注的经济增速最终录得5%的增长,分季度看,一季度增长5.3%,二季度4.7%,增长4.6%,四季度5.4%。完成了年初预定的目标,经济总量也首次突破了130万亿,达到1349084亿元。那么,怎么看待5%这个数据?首先,对于2024年中国经济能够完成5%这个目标,说实话,确实来之不易。特别是考虑到前三个季度平均增长只有4.8%的情况下,通过政策的调整,4季度的增速反弹至5.4%,四季度环比增长达到1.6%,确实不容易。这个数据,放到全球主要经济体里,也肯定是排在前列的。所以,这个成绩我认为值得肯定。第二,从三驾马车和主要指标来看。2024年全年,社会消费品零售总额达到487895亿元,比上年增长3.5%,就3.5%的增速而言,当然是比较低的,消费的疲弱也是2024年中国经济面临的最大问题之一;固定资产投资514374亿元比上年增长3.2%,其中基建增长4.4%,制造业投资增长9.2%,房地产开发投资下降10.6%。也就是说,房地产投资下降10.6%,是投资增速低的主要原因。扣除房地产开发投资,全国固定资产投资增长7.2%。2024年进出口总额438468亿元,增长5.0%。其中,出口254545亿元,增长7.1%,无论是进出口总额,还是出口,都创了历史新高。可以说,尽管2024年国际环境复杂,但出口依然表现优秀,中国的外向型的出口企业面对国际复杂环境的应对能力确实值得肯定。最后,从物价看,CPI全年微涨0.2%,进一步显示内需不足的基本面。第三,从2024年中国经济面临的问题看。

B | 毫无疑问,房地产的深度调整,以及引发的一系列效应,比如地方债的问题,仍然是影响中国经济的主要因素。2024年中国经济的主要问题是内需不足,而内需不足的表现之一就是在房地产的深度调整之下,消费和投资表现都比较弱。

C | 尽管9月底,我们对房地产政策进行了大幅度的调整,出台了一系列稳地产的措施,从市场的表现看,一二线城市市场明显回暖。但是,市场整体的数据仍然处在下行通道。房地产开发投资下降10.6%,是近三年来下降幅度最大的,而且第四季度降幅并未减缓;房地产销售仍然是两位数的下滑,新房开工面积下降幅度超过20%,绝大多数城市的房价依然处在调整区间,全年土地出让金处在3万多亿的低位。要实现“止跌回稳”,确实还需要政策加力。另外,地方债的问题,以及企业经营风险,也是影响2024年中国经济的主要因素。第四,2025年,中国经济的目标,我预计不会低于5%,这是实现中华民族伟大复兴需要的基本速度。考虑到2025年国内外环境和挑战,应该说更加复杂。

D | 且不可因为2024年完成了预期的目标就掉以轻心。2025年,中国经济更加不易。一定要按照去年年底中央经济工作会议的定调,宏观政策要更加积极有为,要稳住楼市股市。特别是地产,要出台更加有力的政策。2025年我最大的担心不是特朗普如何,我最大的担心依然是房地产,房地产稳住的重要性和难度依然被低估。尽快通过加码政策,实现房地产的止跌回稳, 是2025年中国经济全面回暖的前提和基础。最后,我想提醒,大历史在转变,我们今天的环境确实和过去不一样了,国际国内非常复杂。中国的宏观政策和经济学的基本理念也要随着环境的变化而变化。从经济的拉动力而言,依靠投资和出口拉动的时代结束了,必须下决心提升消费,下决心搞创新,不管美国是否打压我们的高科技,我们自己都必须走创新道路。我们的宏观政策和我们的政治经济学要围绕消费和创新来构建新的逻辑,这是当务之急。要认识到大历史在转弯,要认识到经济周期和过去完全不同,要有新的思维和增长模式。最近在读供给学派的创始人吉尔德的著作《后资本主义生活:财富的意义、经济的未来与货币的时间理论》,我认为这本书是人工智能时代,最重要的经济学著作,他提出的“财富就是知识,增长就是学习”的论点可谓振聋发聩,在全球角逐人工智能制高点的情况下,中国经济要房企投资曲线,回归学习曲线,通过创新爬升到价值链的高端,而不是重复过去的道路。就此而言,我希望,2025年,是中国经济真正告别过去模式的元年!。
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